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The ongoing battle between legal and illegal cannabis sales in Ontario

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.14 per gram this week, down 1.2% from last week’s C$5.20 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$1,812 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Each week, Business of Cannabis delivers a series of insights from our partners at Cannabis Benchmarks®.

This month the Ontario Cannabis Store (OCS), the body that regulates the province’s cannabis market, released its quarterly Cannabis Insights report for the period from October through December 2021.

In this week’s report, we focus particularly on the battle between legal and illicit supply. In the first few years of cannabis legalization, the regulated Canadian market has faced strong competition from illicit supply chains, but that situation is evolving quickly. Falling retail prices, increased product variety, and better accessibility through storefronts, pick-up / delivery options, and online marketplaces are helping legal cannabis gain the upper hand in this battle. 

The story is particularly changing in Ontario, where the most recent report estimates the legal market made up 59% of all cannabis sales as of Q4 2021. OCS data shows the trend of legal cannabis capturing increasing proportions of the total market has been quite dramatic over the past two years, and with it we have seen monthly cannabis sales increasing rapidly. For December 2021, legal recreational cannabis sales in Ontario totaled C$127M, 37% higher than a year prior.

Based on the 2021 trajectory, we estimate that every additional 100 stores opened will help increase the proportion of total sales from legal channels by about 2%. The Ontario deployment of stores has slowed down in 2022, but our current Ontario store count estimate is 1,503 stores open as of the end of April. Based on that figure we estimate that legal cannabis currently makes up 62% of total Ontario cannabis sales. This is a great feat for the regulated cannabis market.

Source: Canada Cannabis Spot IndexCannabis Benchmarks

See previous weekly updates from Cannabis Benchmarks:



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