Germany’s medical cannabis market reached approximately €1.15bn in 2026, with private self-pay prescriptions now generating around 75% of total market value, according to a new whitepaper published today by Business of Cannabis and Prohibition Partners.
The whitepaper, European Cannabis Insights 2026, draws on exclusive data and insights presented at the European Cannabis Insights Summit, held in Berlin on June 10, 2026.
It examines the structural forces reshaping medical cannabis markets in Germany, Poland, and Switzerland, and sets out why the next phase of competition will be decided by operational choices rather than regulatory outcomes.
“The European cannabis industry has reached the point at which the winners will be decided less by regulatory outcomes than by the operational and structural choices operators make in the two to three years ahead,” writes Ben Stevens, Editor of Business of Cannabis, in the report’s foreword.
Below, we have covered some key insights from the report.
Germany’s rapidly shifting dynamics
The German medical market’s transformation since the Medical Cannabis Act took effect in April 2024 has been substantial, but not evenly distributed.
The GKV statutory health insurance system, which covers approximately 90% of the German population, generates less than a quarter of total market value. Physician liability concerns, persistent insurer refusals, and the structural complexity of GKV prescribing have kept reimbursed volumes limited, a situation that became more acute when Germany legislated to remove cannabis flowers from GKV-covered products, effective July 30, 2026. Patient groups are seeking legal review of the measure, and its long-term status remains contested.
It comes as the sector continues its rapid expansion. Between March 2024 and December 2025, prescription volumes have risen by more than 3000%, while the number of available cannabis SKU’s has more than doubled.
Predicted to reach more than €1.5bn over the next four years, Germany’s trajectory will now depend almost entirely on the growth of private prescription volumes among patient cohorts currently under-served by telemedicine models.
Supply pressure
Germany imports rose by more than 170% in 2025, with Canada accounting for approximately 46% of direct imports, and nearly three quarters of the total when indirect imports are factored in.
However, this volume growth has sharply diverged from margin growth. As average wholesale prices continue to fall, the report explores the structural imbalances between supply and demand.
While the number of available flower SKUs has grown sharply, balanced-strain products, those meeting German pharmaceutical standards for both THC and CBD simultaneously, remain scarce. Operators able to supply consistent, quality-tested product with reliable cannabinoid profiles continue to command sustained price premiums.
Lessons from Poland
Following Poland’s ban on telemedicine prescriptions for medical cannabis in November 2024, prescription volumes fell 57% in the first months after the ruling.
The market has since recovered, driven by the development of hybrid in-person clinic models that extended geographic reach across the country.
Average prices also fell by nearly a third over the same period, from 65 to 47 PLN per gram. The report presents Poland as a working example of the resilience of patient demand when access pathways adapt, and of the acute revenue exposure operators face when they do not.
Switzerland’s example
Switzerland’s adult-use pilot programme has produced some of the most concrete data yet on illicit-market displacement.
Across all eight active pilots, two thirds of participants were no longer sourcing cannabis from the illicit market, while overall illicit sourcing fell by half.
The report examines the contrast between Swiss and German regulatory culture in pilot design. Switzerland’s legal framework for its pilots runs to 80 pages, while Germany’s equivalent statutory foundation covers approximately two pages with cross-references to other laws.
The European Cannabis Insights 2026 whitepaper is now available to download here. The report is produced by Business of Cannabis, powered by Prohibition Partners, in association with CB Club.
