Beyond the presidential result, yesterday key cannabis reform votes took place across numerous states, poised to have a significant impact the US cannabis industry.
Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, and others have all weighed in on critical measures for medical and recreational cannabis regulation.
Should all three have passed, analysis suggests that new regulated adult-use cannabis markets in Florida and North Dakota – along with a medical cannabis market in Nebraska – could collectively have produced $3bn during the first full year of sales
Florida – Amendment 3 Fails
The most consequential vote of that day was Florida’s Amendment 3, which would have legalized the possession and sale of recreational cannabis for adults.
As the third largest state in the US by population, many commentators have speculated that should this amendment be passed, Florida could become the second largest adult-use cannabis market in the US, trailing only California.
However, this was not the case. While the Amendment 3 initiative received a clear majority of 57.8% of the vote, it fell short of the 60% ‘supermajority’ threshold required to pass a constitutional amendment in the state.
As the US Cannabis Council’s David Culver, Head of Policy, states, if the vote were held in any other state, it would have succeeded.
“Smart & Safe Florida ran a historic, bipartisan campaign that achieved majority support among Floridians,” he said.
“Anywhere else, that would have meant a victory, but Florida requires a supermajority, and the state’s governor spent tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to defeat the measure.
According to Viridian Capital Advisors, this results is likely to have cost the cannabis companies around an incremental $2-3bn run rate of revenues.
At 30%ish EBITDA margins, this is a $1B EBITDA hit and at 5x somewhere around a $5B potential market cap hit.
If the company’s profit margins (EBITDA margins) are around 30%, then this setback could result in a $1 billion hit to their overall profits. And based on a typical valuation multiple of 5 times EBITDA, that $1 billion profit hit could translate to around a $5 billion reduction in the company’s potential market value.
While a disappointing result for the local industry, stakeholders are adamant that ‘this isn’t the end’ of cannabis reform in the state, especially given the clear majority who voted in favour of Amendment 3 (56.8% – 43.2%)
Safe Harbor Financial’s Chief Strategic Business Development Officer, Tyler Beuerlein, said: “While the amendment did not pass, this does not signal an end to cannabis discussions in Florida, but rather a continuation of an ongoing dialogue about responsible cannabis access and economic strategy.
“The failure of Amendment 3 highlights the continued importance of measured, incremental approaches to cannabis policy. For existing medical cannabis operators, this means maintaining focus on delivering high-quality, compliant services within the current regulatory framework.”
Florida-based medical cannabis practice DocMJ also pointed out that while adult-use cannabis is not yet a reality, medical cannabis continues to thive across the state.
CEO Aaron Bloom said: “While the failure to pass Amendment 3 in Florida is disappointing to many across the state, it is important to remember that Florida’s medical cannabis program remains robust and fully intact.
“The medical marijuana program continues to offer significant benefits, including tax exemptions, higher possession limits, and access to potent, medical-grade products that adult-use markets typically do not provide.”
Nebraska – Medical Cannabis Passes
On a more positive note, Nebraska voters have approved two medical cannabis legalization measures, marking the third attempt by advocates to bring medical cannabis to the state.
The initiatives, led by Nebraskans for Medical Cannabis (NMM), aim to establish protections for qualified patients and create a state-regulated medical cannabis program. However, both measures still face legal challenges that could prevent them from taking effect.
NMM gathered over 114,000 signatures in July for each initiative. If enacted, the measures will require lawmakers to protect the rights of patients who obtain medical cannabis through a doctor’s recommendation and set up a Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission to regulate the program.
This follows previous setbacks in 2020 and 2022, when a state Supreme Court ruling and lack of funding hindered NMM’s earlier efforts.
Recent polling indicates that nearly 60% of Nebraska voters support medical cannabis, yet the measures remain contested. Former state senator John Kuehn filed a lawsuit challenging the validity of the signatures.
Although a judge allowed votes to proceed, the legal issues have not been fully resolved, leaving the future of the initiatives uncertain.
Legal analysts suggest that Nebraska could see over 93,000 medical cannabis patients by 2030, translating to $925 million in economic growth and $152 million in medical cannabis sales by that year. However, some officials, including Governor Jim Pillen (R), oppose the initiatives, citing concerns about potential harms and urging FDA approval for such treatments.
In the legislature, past efforts to legalize medical cannabis, led by NMM co-chair Senator Anna Wishart (D), have repeatedly stalled. Legislative cannabis bills have faced consistent resistance in Nebraska’s conservative unicameral body, leaving voters to decide the future of medical cannabis access in the state.
Illicit Garden’s Chief Marketing Officer, David Craig, said of the vote: “We applaud the citizens of Nebraska for embracing this significant change. Legalizing medical cannabis opens the door to numerous opportunities—from boosting the state’s economy to rectifying long-standing social injustices related to cannabis prohibition.
“The cannabis industry is eager to collaborate with state officials, businesses, and community organizations to ensure the responsible and effective implementation of the new law.”
Gurpreet Sahani, CEO at The Blinc Group, added: “The legalization of medical cannabis in Nebraska is a monumental step forward for the state. It will not only generate significant tax revenue for essential services like education and infrastructure but also relieve the criminal justice system of low-level cannabis offenses.
“With this new framework, Nebraska can establish a well-regulated market that prioritizes safety and accountability while offering a pathway to expungement for past cannabis-related offenses, rectifying past injustices.”
North Dakota – Measure 5 Fails
North Dakota voters have once again rejected a cannabis legalization measure, following a similar defeat in 2018. Despite efforts by the New Economic Frontier campaign to garner enough support, the proposal ultimately fell short.
Measure 5 proposed allowing adults 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of cannabis flower, four grams of concentrate, and 300 milligrams of edibles, along with growing up to three cannabis plants for personal use.
The measure would have allowed for up to seven cannabis manufacturers and 18 dispensaries to operate under a regulated framework led by the Department of Health and Human Services or a designated agency.
However, unlike similar initiatives in other states, Measure 5 did not include criminal justice reform provisions, such as expungement or equity-focused licensing.
Despite this, Ray DeSabato, CEO of Chorus, suggests the initiative still had a number of ‘ambitious elements to evolve the state’s approach to regulation, taxation, and revenue allocation’.
He continued: “The decision to deny recreational cannabis legalization, while disappointing, is not a surprising one. However, medical cannabis still provides relief for many patients, making pathogen prevention and responsible distribution essential.”
Efforts to legalize cannabis in North Dakota have spanned several years, including a previous ballot measure, legislative attempts, and grassroots campaigns. While recreational cannabis remains illegal, North Dakota voters approved medical cannabis in 2016, with recent updates allowing hospice patients to self-certify as medical cannabis patients.
Louis Samuel, CEO of Golden State Canna, explained: “For the third time the voters of North Dakota have decided that the nickname they hold on their license plates, ‘The Peace Garden State’, excludes the plant more associated with peace than any other.
“Measure 5 provided an opportunity to overcome past failures of initiative and increase liberty in the state, but instead the voters of North Dakota have chosen to place tradition over progress and keep a shadow over their garden.”
