Looking Ahead: What’s in Store for Cannabis in 2024? – Part 2

You can read part 1 of our Looking Ahead series here. 

David Goubert, President & CEO, AYR Wellness

MSOs will be focusing on the financial health of their companies, prioritizing cash flow generation and fostering leaner, more efficient operations.

If rescheduling and 280E relief occurs as anticipated, annual tax expenses would decrease, allowing companies to pay down debt and reduce annual interest expense. This coupled with the prospect of Adult Use in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida has the potential to result in significant de-leveraging by 2025.

1. For additional perspective, AYR has 88 retail stores across our footprint today. Of those 88 stores, only 15 of them are adult-use stores. With legislative catalysts in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, we estimate our adult-use retail footprint to increase nearly 6x by 2025.
2. You all may see certain multi-state operators become a bit more aggressive in their expansion once again… but not until the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025. As these leaner, more efficient companies will be in a better position to expand once again.

Companies with larger brand portfolios will start slimming down and condensing their brands to allow for a more meaningful resonance with consumers in the markets where they are sold.

Alleh Lindquist, CEO, FloraWorks Holdings Inc.

In 2024, cannabinoid therapeutics will become the leading emerging market opportunity in the cannabis industry. Since FloraWorks’ inception in CBN manufacturing in 2020, the market has surged to well over $277 million in recreational sales alone. CBN-infused products dominate the top-selling SKUs for five out of the top six national edible brands, driving the global market to an estimated $1 billion.

This year, our own landmark sleep study clinically-validated the use of CBN for sleep improvement – looking to 2024, I expect to see the market becoming more invested in CBN as a potential alternative to other natural sleep aids and existing pharmaceutical options. I also expect to see a continued upward trend in cannabinoid-research as our industry seeks to discover the vast therapeutic potential of rare and novel cannabinoids, paving the way for innovation and growth.

We are on the precipice of being able to offer new hope for a variety of unmet medical needs, and we at FloraWorks look forward to continuing to unlock the diverse potential of this ingredient.

Morgan Paxhia, Co-Founder, Poseidon Investment Management

If I had a crystal ball, this is what I believe it will tell us about the next twelve months in the legalized cannabis industry. The forthcoming year will be the most exciting ever in the industry. I foresee the federal government reclassifying cannabis rescheduled as a Schedule III controlled substance on April 20, 2024.

Immediately afterward, Democratic leaders like Senator Chuck Schumer and Senator Cory Booker will hold press conferences and try to take a victory lap. In response, certain members of Congress will attempt to stifle this reclassification and force an egregiously high 14% excise tax, which some will try to prop up as a compromise.

President Biden will miss the chance to capitalize on this historic shift in federal policy, allowing Donald Trump and the Republican Party to swoop in and boost their perception among younger voters. Additionally, I believe hemp-derived Delta-9 THC products and other naturally occurring intoxicating hemp-derived cannabinoids will be forced into regulated channels, closing the Farm Bill loophole. Unfortunately, we will see no SAFER Banking Act progress.

Instead a Garland Memo-like protection will be introduced alongside Schedule III in response to the Boise Schiller Flexnor lawsuit against Attorney General Merrick Garland on behalf of several cannabis companies, creating enthusiasm throughout the industry.

Rescheduling alone or rescheduling/memo combo will result in a new wave of liquidity, a surge in M&A activities, equity issuance and refinanced debts that will bail out many who may not survive otherwise. We will also see new companies listed on CBOE in Canada. By the time the ball drops and welcomes in a New Year, we will look back at what has been a wild ride in 2024.

Lewis Koski, Chief Strategy Officer, Metrc

Rescheduling, 280E and banking will likely still be the primary areas of focus in DC. 2024 is a presidential year, and those years have been pretty good for the expansion of cannabis legalization within the states.

To the extent there are still states where the electorate can make the call on legalization, we might see a few more states put legalization on the ballot. Any movement to expand or legitimize legalization could yield positive results economically for an industry that has felt the impacts of an uncertain economy.

Bill Rinehart, CEO, BOLD Carts

In the upcoming year, we at BOLD Carts expect to maintain our reputation as key innovators in the cannabis and technology space. In 2024, we see a shift away from cartridges to all-in-one devices, meeting consumer need for discrete consumption alternatives.

As more consumers move from live resin to Rosin and thicker oils, there’s a growing need for reliable hardware. BOLD, known for its exceptional customer services and patented technology is positioned to meet these demands.

Beyond just products, 2024 is all about scaling. As markets begin to open and mature, we see this as a major opportunity for expansion. For example, with vape pens emerging as the second highest selling category in Missouri, a state that recently legalized adult-use sales, it highlights the growing demand for these products.

Socrates Rosenfeld, CEO & Co-Founder, Jane Technologies

As we approach 2024, the US cannabis industry finds itself at an exciting point in time. With the government’s recent actions on issues like SAFER and rescheduling, the end of cannabis prohibition has never felt closer to becoming a reality.

With future consumer growth expected to be exponential and large mainstream brands anticipated to enter the space, current Industry operators must continue to invest in scalable solutions to remain competitive.

Powerful digital infrastructure, deep data analysis, and trusted customer relationships not only will be important factors in determining the future winners of the US market – but also will shape the future of the global industry for generations to come.