Ohio could see potential annual tax revenue from adult-use cannabis hit $276 million in year five of an operational cannabis market to $403 million in year five of operations.
The figure comes from an Ohio State University report update – 2023 Report Update: What Tax Revenues Should Ohioans Expect If Ohio Legalises Adult-Use Cannabis? – which is informed by tax revenue data and trends from a select group of other adult-use states
The authors write: “Advocates for cannabis reform in Ohio and in other states often stress the tax revenue that can be raised through legalisation. If a citizen-initiated statute were to reach the November 2023 ballot, Ohio voters are likely to hear from reform advocates about the potential tax revenue a new cannabis industry could bring to the Buckeye State.”
The authors also state that the report uses Michigan FY 2021 data on cannabis tax revenue as a focal point for Ohio cannabis tax revenue estimates given the demographic and tax structure similarities: “We are using three different scenarios for rate of diminishing retail sales growth through year five of an operational legal adult-use program; we are using state population figures as our basis for calculating per capita cannabis tax revenue rates; and we are modelling for three different Ohio pricing scenarios.”
In this regard, the authors made the analysis in the first instance if cannabis products in the state were taxes the same as in Michigan, followed by 10% and 20% higher for the latter tiers, as “Michigan has nearly identical cannabis tax structure to the proposed tax structure set forth in the citizen-initiated statute that will come before Ohio voters in November
2023 – state and applicable local sales tax (6% and 5.75% state sales tax in Michigan and Ohio respectively), plus 10% special or excise tax at the point of purchase.”
However, the authors also note that the amount of taxes collected will be “highly dependent on what type of tax levels and structure would be ultimately adopted if Ohio legalises adult-use cannabis.”